China's 2010 international trade volume is expected to rise 10 percent from 2009, and exports to increase about 15 percent, said Pei Changhong, an expert on finance and trade at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

'The foreign trade volume of 2010 will rise back to the 2008 level,' Pei said on the release of the 2010 Economic Blue Book by the CASS on December 7. 'A negative growth of trading volume is inevitable this year, but China still sees a surplus.'

Customs statistics showed that the country's trade surplus in January-October was more than $150 billion, and may hit $190 billion for the whole year. The monthly exports surpassed $100 billion from July to October. 'The climbing trend will continue for the last two months of this year,' Pei said.

The Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) became China's fourth largest importer after the European Union, US and the Hong Kong special administrative region in the first ten months of this year.

'The China-ASEAN free trade zone has had its impact,' said Pei. China and ASEAN countries impose no tariffs on 70 percent of bilateral trade goods at present, and this policy will be extended to 100 percent next year.

China raised the export tax rebate rate, seven times this year, which pushed up exports significantly. 'The Chinese government is expected to pay 630 billion yuan ($92 billion) this year for the export tax rebate policy. There is limited room left for the tax-rebate policy,'said Pei.

Chen Jiagui, an academician from the CASS, stressed that it is crucial mission to boost domestic consumption. 'We have a long way to go. Consumption growth is to be moderate next year, especially for the civil consumption. Some macro policies are needed,'he said.

The 2010 Economic Blue Book forecasts total retail sales of consumer goods may rise 16.3 percent year-on-year to reach 12.5 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) this year, and up 16.4 percent year-on-year next year, to reach 14.8 trillion yuan.